Pennsylvania Primary Redux: Was It Decisive?
[April 23, 2008, 3:37 a.m., Chicago, IL)
The question I posed at the top of my Pennsylvania Primary blog entries, (its title, if you will), was “The Pennsylvania Primary on April 22nd: Will It Be Decisive?” The Keystone State vote is now in; the answer to that question is no.
Indiana’s vote lies ahead. Twenty-five per cent of Indiana voters are in the Chicago media mart. It’s similar to Ohio and Pennsylvania in its make-up and it will be a crucial state. While North Carolina, which has a large African American population and some affluent areas, looks good for Obama, Indiana shapes up to be much more like Pennsylvania or Ohio, so Hillary might well win in Indiana, but it, too, will be a close race. Just as Pennsylvania was expected to go for Clinton, North Carolina is expected to go for Obama.
Barack Obama did not receive a death blow in Pennsylvania, but Jeffrey Toobin and other analysts have said (on CNN Election Eve coverage), “This victory may convince Super Delegates that he has problems with blue-collar voters, Catholic voters. They’re asking themselves, “Do we have a damaged candidate here?'” Indiana is becoming a pivotal state, as Obama himself acknowledged.
Barack Obama needs to stay ahead in the Super Delegate counts. He needs to keep his momentum going. Having two-thirds of Catholic voters in Pennsylvania vote for Hillary (69% to 31%, specifically), as well as white male voters voting for Hillary 55% to 45% for Obama, is not good news.
What happened on April 21st, however, was what was expected. In Philadelphia, the Obama supporters came out, including black voters and he won big in the city, 65% to Clinton’s 35%. The southeast did well for Obama, as did Delaware and Chester County. Clinton’s big victory came in Bucks County (suburb of Philadelphia), and in rural areas like Allentown and Erie and “the T,” (discussed in my original article.) She won the senior vote, the white male vote, the Catholic vote and 57% of the Jewish vote. (Only 7% of the state’s voters are Jewish.) All this courtesy of John King’s blue map (The Magic Touch or the “wonder wall” as they call it) on CNN Election Coverage.
The thing to remember about Hillary Clinton, as one analyst on CNN said, is that “She’s in it to spin it.” Hillary and Bill have a well-known reputation for going to almost any lengths to win. She went negative on Barack Big Time in Pennsylvania, and, distasteful as that seems to much of the country, we’re bound to see more of it. In fact, those inside Barack Obama’s campaign are urging him to become more negative in defending his lead. Keep in mind, if Hillary “spins” the need to “seat” Florida’s voters ( she’s the Mother Theresa of Florida, worrying overtime about their disenfranchisement), where both names appeared on the ballot, at least, (which they did not in Michigan), and, if you add in Pennsylvania’s popular vote, the popular vote margin becomes closer: 15,117,521 for Clinton, or 47%, with 15,390,196 for Obama, or 48%. (4% go to “other”). Is pulling within range by changing the rules in the middle of the game fair? Isn’t this cheating? Of course it’s not fair, and 6 of 10 voters polled have said that they think Hillary Clinton is “untrustworthy” in CNN polls. It’s not fair to suddenly become so concerned about the poor disenfranchised Florida (or Michigan) voters that both candidates agreed to punish early on, but “she’s in it to spin it,” and, now that she’s behind, why not change the rules so that she can seize the nomination from the grasp of the rightful winner? [Hey! It happened to me in East Moline’s 1st Ward, as I proved in a challenge ordered by a Republican judge, and it happens in elections every year (Al Gore in Florida, anyone?)]
After Pennsylvania was called for Hillary, she made a plea for donations and raised $2 and ½ million dollars from new donors. The money will help Hillary to spread her new message that she’s better with blue collar voters, white folks, Latinos, old people, and Catholics than Obama is and help her to put forth the doubt that Obama can win nationally. In fact, she has already done this, asking why Obama couldn’t “close the deal” before Pennsylvania was over.
No one has been able to explain why the Catholic vote went 2/3 for Hillary Clinton. Thirty-seven % of the voters in Pennsylvania are Catholic, but neither Hillary nor Bill is Catholic. Pennsylvania voted much like Ohio before it. Here are the theories for this I’ve heard: 1) the Nun theory. Nuns are (generally) mature, white women. Those are Hillary’s supporters, so perhaps nuns convinced their charges to vote for the first woman with a real shot at becoming her party’s Presidential nominee. Let us not forget that Roman Catholic nuns have been in the forefront of many national movements that require women to stand up and be counted; if you’re able to remember the Vietnam War, you will know that both priests and nuns demonstrated, at times, to stop the slaughter (Father Daniel Berrigan, et. al.), and there have been other issues of conscience that have brought forth either outright or tacit support from this group of independent women
(2) Catholics are big on forgiveness, confession and guilt and strongly disapprove of divorce (I know; I’m a Catholic). When her philandering husband publicly humiliated Hillary, she didn’t bail on him, but “stood by her man.” Some felt she should have served him with divorce papers ASAP, but she did not. She held her head high, bit her lip, and suffered in silence. This period was perhaps the peak of Hillary’s personal popularity, as even those who had castigated her previously felt sorry for the poor “wronged and humiliated” wife. While we can all speculate on whether the Clinton liaison is a “marriage” in the traditional sense of the word, or more of a business partnership, we may be seeing the traditional Catholic virtues emerging in response to Hillary Clinton’s campaign. It’s just a theory; add yours, if you have one.
Over 320,000 new Democrats, up 8% in Pennsylvania have spoken. What they said did not really surprise pollsters, who were already anticipating a Clinton win there. The Clinton side “spins” the win as huge for her, because of the Big State argument (I can carry the Big States like Pennsylvania, and you, Barack Obama, cannot. Nyaaah. Nyaaah, nyaaah, nyaaah!)
The Obama campaign has run a fairer and cleaner campaign, to date. No negative attack ads. No attempt to change rules that were agreed upon by all in advance, like the Vegas voters voting in casinos or the seating of Michigan and Florida delegations, who are being punished for moving their caucuses and primaries up in defiance of the national Democratic Party (I have to ask: Dr, Dean….you’re a smart man? How did you and/or yours come up with that bonehead idea? Surely you could see something like this coming?) No pious mouthing(s) about the poor disenfranchised Michigan and Florida voters, made in order to seize their votes, by the Obama camp.
Obama, himself, said that Clinton would win Pennsylvania before the votes were in, but also said “we’ll do better than people expect.” Narrowing the gap from 20 or 30% to 10% qualifies and is exactly what he predicted.
As Obama closed a 20-point polling gap. David Gergen, political analyst for CNN said, “He was closing in on her and as he was closing, not only did he stall, but he actually got hurt.”
The entire Democratic Party is going to have a “stalling” problem and get hurt if they can’t get their candidate picked by June. Representative Patrick Murphy (D, PA), said, “We need to all come together. I hope it’s not a brokered convention.” There will only be 8 weeks between the end of the conventions and the actual election, so it would be to the advantage of the Democratic party to know who is going to be their pick by June, as John McCain is sitting pretty in that department right now, watching the Democratic fight with great amusement, no doubt.
The 300 Super Delegates are looking pretty important right about now, as they have for months. I’m wondering if John Edwards will come into play somehow in the North Carolina contest that looms? And what about Florida and Michigan? Remember, Folks: “she’s in it to spin it.”
Johnie Travillian
love the blog, thanks for sharing your thoughts